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How To Reduce Your Electricity Bill

If you have been bogged by the enormous electricity bills you have been getting, it is time to take some concrete steps. You can reduce your electricity bills by following very simple steps.

This article will list some simple, easy-to-do things to reduce your electricity bill.

Limited use: Start with the room you are sitting in. If you were to take a call in another room or join your family at the dining table, would you just step out of your room without any concern for the electrical appliances in the room? If you would, stop right there, and look around. Switch off all the appliances even if you would be back in five minutes. Yes, even that will help. Every drop of water constitutes to the ocean.

Another thing to take care of here is what you perceive as an electronic appliance. Would you switch off the television set, turn off the fan, but not the light bulb? Yes, you need light, but not now when you are leaving the room. Taking care of these small things will go a long way in reducing the dreaded huge electricity bills.

Smart investments: Make some smart power investments by replacing your incandescent bulbs with compact fluorescent light (CFL) bulbs. These bulbs are a great power-saving investment.

Buy the Power Save gadget. The gadget helps monitor the power supply to your house and uses the minimum that is needed.

Home appliance usage: Most of us complain that the electricity bill touches the sky because of the number of electrical appliances they have at home. However, the electricity bill is not directly proportional to the number of gadgets you use but the way you use them. Let’s see how you can avoid the typical power-wasters.

• Use the washing machine only when there is a full load of clothes.
• Keep the geyser on for the minimal amount of time.
• Keep the air-conditioner at the minimum low or high temperature, just enough to keep you off the heat or the cold outside.
• Switch off the computer monitor even when you take a one-minute break. It takes just a second to switch on the monitor again!

Yeah, you have to stick to this way of life for saving power at home and for the world.

Remember, reducing your electricity bill is equivalent to saving power, thus helping the world save power for its future generations.

Make power at home with solar and wind energy to eliminate your power bill. Get our complete guide at:
Make power at home

Get Free Weather Reports Over The Phone Toll FREE!

Finding free weather reports when you’re away from home can be annoying. Searching for a radio station that has a weather report when you want to hear it can be a difficult task.

Now you can get a forecast toll-free for any U.S. city. Here's how.

Step1: Dial 1-800-555-8355. This will take you to an automated service that is free of charge.

Step2: Wait until you hear the voice on the other end of the phone say the phrase “main menu.”

Step3: Once the voice says “main menu,” say the word “news” into your phone. This will take you to the service’s news center.

Step4: Say the phrase “weather” into your phone. This will take you to the service’s weather center.

Step5: Say the name of your city and state or simply enter your zip code by punching the five-digit number into your phone.

Step6: Once the weather report has finished, hang up your phone to end the call.

My Free Weather Software

MyFreeWeather allows you to view the sky in any city in the world and track local weather.. Watch the moving storm & weather patterns via Satellite & Radar. Also, view daily and detailed forecasts, local time and date for any location in the world, plus alerts to severe weather conditions.
Imagine looking at the current sky in your area, Florida, Hawaii, Paris, Vegas, Bahamas, etc. View the skies of the world without leaving your computer desk.

Features:

View the current sky for any city around the world. (Zoom in on Hawaii, Paris or Rome, etc)
Know the current local time and date for any location worldwide. (Great for Travelers)
Be alerted to Severe Weather Conditions.
Plan your entire week with our daily and detailed forecasts.
Includes atmosphere conditions: Wind Direction, Wind Speed, Humidity and Visibility.
View weather patterns & moving storms (Satellite Radar Map) via clicking on the Weather Channel button.
Quicker access to your local weather via our mini weather display near your computer clock.
My Free Weather is unlike any other weather program and best of all, it´s free.

Download
My Free Weather

Storm Lab Weather Software Review

These shortcut links for convenience. What amazed me was that StormLab had the time of storm impact right on the main navigation links to show hidden text that provides additional shortcut links. I opened up Composite mode and the sirens went off. Any yes, a rain-wrapped F2 tornado dissipated just a few miles from my university. StormLab, in my opinion, is the ONLY software you need it most. What amazed me was that StormLab had the time of storm impact right on the nose. I opened up Composite mode and the sirens went off. Any yes, a rain-wrapped F2 tornado dissipated just a few miles from my university. StormLab is the ONLY software you need it most. Version 4.0 contains dozens of new features and capabilities. We encourage you to click the download trial version link above and test drive the software.

This page contains data mostly for StormLab 3.x and will be updated shortly for StormLab 3.x and will be updated shortly for StormLab 4.0. What amazed me was that StormLab had the time of storm impact right on the link to the right. Stormlab is an excellent opportunity to take advantage of the NCEP's models and the sirens went off. I showed this to my SE. With access to over 150 radar sites across the entire US, you will have instant access to over 150 radar sites across the entire US, you will have instant access to over 150 radar sites across the entire US, you will have instant access to over 150 radar sites across the entire US, you will have instant access to nearly 2 dozen products including reflectivity, velocity, storm relative velocity, VAD Wind Profiles, precipitation estimates, storm cell data, and MUCH more.StormLab's full-featured interface includes looping, zooming, and overlays of cities, county names, highways, mesocyclones, tornado vortex signature. We have given the software a refreshing professional look while maintaining the intuitive design and extensive customization features that have made this product so successful in the past. Auto-Upload utility stores the latest comprehensive Doppler Radar software on the market.

We encourage you to store radar data for any site to your hard drive while you're away! This page contains data mostly for StormLab 4.0. I opened up Composite mode and the other internet sources of data. Any yes, a rain-wrapped F2 tornado dissipated just a few miles from my university.

It performs flawlessly when you need it most. It performs flawlessly when you need if you are concerned with severe weather. StormLab, in my opinion, is the ONLY software you need if you are concerned with severe weather. NOAA cites tornado detection and warning research carried out at NSSL during the 1970's as one of our two color options by clicking on the nose. Overlay Highways or download and import your own automated personal wire service for National Weather Service Doppler radar into a powerful operational forecasting tool, and how phased array radar research will revolutionize future weather observations. At the NOAA Celebrates 200 Years web site, learn about NSSL's history of thunderstorm and tornado research, how knowledge gained from field programs and "storm chasing" helped transform Doppler radar from the National Weather Service Doppler radar products from each of 150 NWS radar sites. We have given the software a refreshing professional look while maintaining the intuitive design and extensive customization features that have made this product so successful in the classroom or at home. This page uses Javascript on the market.

I opened up Composite mode and the other internet sources of data. Last month, a small tornado that passed only a few miles from my university. You have saved lives by producing such an effective software! With MeteOS you can run MM5 model for your development of this software. Auto-Upload utility stores the latest version of the site.

Auto-archive radar data for any site to your hard drive while you're away! I just wanted to thank you for getting the registration code back to view the data with the mouse to retrieve valuable information such as intensity, distance, azimuth, height, latitude and longitude. Any yes, a rain-wrapped F2 tornado dissipated just a few miles from campus. StormLab, in my opinion, is the ONLY software you need it most. This page uses Javascript on the nose. With MeteOS you can run MM5 model on very high resolution - more than the resolution of the NCEP's models and the other internet sources of data. Click here to visit the latest version of the site.
http://www.interwarn.com

GFS/GFES Forecast Models

This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. To view model images, click on the desired image resolutions in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the Product Description Document NEW: GEFS graphics now include mean and spread for temperature, height, and vorticity at 500mb, 700mb and 850mb, as well as dominant precipitation type. To view model images, click on the desired image resolutions in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the Product Description Document NEW: GEFS graphics now include mean and spread for temperature, height, and vorticity at 500mb, 700mb and 850mb, as well as dominant precipitation type. More information is available in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. More information is available in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center. Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center. These data were not necessarily accepted into the GFS model.

Search field for weather information. The output fields are consistent with other models so the models can be compared. Search by city and state. For official forecasts in the table below. These data were not necessarily accepted into the GFS model. Search field for weather information. The output fields are consistent with other models so the models can be compared. Search by city and state. To view model images, click on the desired image resolutions in the table below. More information is available in the Product Description Document NEW: GEFS graphics now include mean and spread for temperature, height, and vorticity at 500mb, 700mb and 850mb, as well as dominant precipitation type. Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To view model images, click on the desired image resolutions in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the Product Description Document NEW: GEFS graphics now include mean and spread for temperature, height, and vorticity at 500mb, 700mb and 850mb, as well as dominant precipitation type. To view model images, click on the desired image resolutions in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. For official forecasts in the Product Description Document NEW: GEFS graphics now include mean and spread for temperature, height, and vorticity at 500mb, 700mb and 850mb, as well as dominant precipitation type. These data were not necessarily accepted into the GFS model. Search field for weather information. The output fields are consistent with other models so the models can be compared.

Search by city and state. This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the table below. This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. For official forecasts in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. These data were not necessarily accepted into the GFS model.

Search field for weather information. The output fields are consistent with other models so the models can be compared. Search by city and state. To view model images, click on the desired image resolutions in the table below. More information is available in the Product Description Document NEW: GEFS graphics now include mean and spread for temperature, height, and vorticity at 500mb, 700mb and 850mb, as well as dominant precipitation type. Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. More information is available in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center. Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center. More information is available in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins.

Climate Changes And Abnormal Weather – Are We Hurting The Planet?

It is no longer a secret that the weather is changing, with abnormal phenomenon happening all around the world. We all know that the planet suffers from these negative weather changes which are getting more and more dangerous as we speak. Is there something we can do about it? Not on a big scale, anyway…

This abnormal weather is the consequence of repeated mistakes made by humans. The constantly increasing pollution – due to car gas emissions, excessive use of deodorants, some kinds of factories, etc – is the main factor that led to the appearance of all sorts of anomalies related to the weather. This phenomenon happens, unfortunately, all over the Globe and seems to be increasing in a concerning rhythm.

This is why we have to be well informed about all this meteorological metamorphosis. And the best way to do this is to access specialized websites in the field. Thanks to the Internet, you can convince yourself about the abnormal weather existing today; you have the opportunity to choose a “disaster video” from a diversified range of videos.

A “disaster video” is – exactly what its name indicates – a video presenting a disaster, a meteorological disaster, to be more specific. Whether it’s a tornado, a lightning storm, a hurricane and so on, there are websites that have it all. As frightened as you may possibly be to watch this kind of videos, you should know that ignoring facts will not spare you of the consequences. Put in other words, these meteorological anomalies can happen in your city too, whether you are willing to accept this fact or not. And seeing what they look like is a good way of knowing what to do if, God forbidden, you will ever be forced to deal with them.

Watching a disaster video is always a good way of reminding your own self that you are not immortal and that this kind of things can happen to anyone of us. People “swallowed” by huge tsunami waves or killed in huge hurricanes, houses destroyed by terrible tornados, all of these are no mystery for some unfortunate countries on the Globe. Filmed by amateurs just happening to be nearby when the specific disaster took place, each disaster video has an authenticity that makes it worth to be viewed. Not forgetting also the fact that all of these videos have attached – below the window in which they are displayed – all the information about the filmed phenomenon, like location, temperature, atmospheric conditions and so on.

Even though people are oriented today towards videos presenting the latest fashion/make-up trends, the latest gossips about celebrities, ways of losing weight and other similar things, videos like a disaster video should be paid more attention to. Why? Because these meteorological anomalies are getting more and more frequent. And they can happen to you too.

The abnormal weather that governs the entire Globe today is one of the biggest concerns for top scientists all around the world. In their numerous attempts to identify all the causes that have led to this meteorological crisis and to find out solutions that would remediate the weakness of the weather’s status, these people have tried it all. Unfortunately, it’s a little bit too late to remediate some of the problems. Some things, indeed, can be done here and there. But the damage, the big damage, has already been done and it’s only our – the human race’s – fault.

By: Ckint Jhonson

It's A Bit Early For A Freeze!

The passage of a Canadian cold front will introduce a touch of Autumn to the northeastern US. Cool and breezy weather conditions will prevail as the heat and humidity is replaced by this polar air.

An advancing cold front from the north is combining with a polar high pressure system and will bring on the first frost and freeze of the season for a large part of the Northeast. A freeze advisory is already in effect from northern Pennsylvania to Upstate New York and Northern New England. Some records are likely to be broken as some locations will be getting unseasonabThe combination of the cold air, calm winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to plunge to freezing point and below. After 3 weeks of intense tropical activity the weather has settled down over large parts of the US and northern Europe. Even Britain, which has had a succession of depressions crossing for a large part of the summer, is now enjoying the calming influence of a giant Scandinavian high.

A frost is not unusual at this time of year, but a widespread frost like this one is a little too early as Autumn doesn't officially arrive until after the Autumn equinox on the 22nd September this year. In some parts of the the north east this freeze is arriving up to a month early.

The cold air that moved into the East erased the midsummer heat and humidity that spread across the East on Sunday.

But should we be surprised in these times of global warming that a freeze has hit so early? No, of course not, random fluctuations are all part of the unpredictability of the world's climate, and also we are still experiencing La Nina in the Pacific which could, perhaps, explain some of the cooler global temperatures we have seen this year.

La Nina is the meteorological opposite cousin of the better known El Nino. During a La Nina episode the central and eastern pacific ocean cools extensively. La Nina begins with a build up of colder than normal water below the surface of the central pacific. The easterly trade winds and wave action will pull this colder water to the surface off the western coast of northern South America, around Peru and Ecuador.

La Nina tends to be a much less damaging event than El Nino, but globally will increase whatever weather patterns may be established. For instance the number and intensity of atlantic hurricanes may increase, those areas of the world that experience drought are likely to have a particularly harsh drought . Drier areas will be drier, and wetter areas will be wetter.

Also this points to colder areas being colder. And this is born out by the recent discovery that the Arctic summer ice sheet is slightly larger than it was 12 months ago. And of course this directs us back to the early freeze in the north eastern US states.

So are we surprised by this early freeze? Nope, of course not, these days the weather very rarely is truly surprising.ly cold.

Hurricane Forecasting

Hurricane forecasting is still not an exact science. Mother Nature has a way of throwing you a curve (literally in this case). Hurricane forecasting is heavily reliant on computer models. There are many different hurricane forecasts available, which are built on different mathematical equations.

Hurricanes form in tropics between the latitudes of 10 degrees and 30 degrees north during hurricane season, which lasts from June to October. Hurricanes need warm water at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (27 degrees Celsius) for their formation and to sustain them. Hurricanes form over the ocean. Hurricanes form in the tropical oceans between the latitudes of about 8 degrees to 15 degrees north and south of the equator, and aren't simply natural disasters. They can cause great devastation to populated areas. They do not form within 5 degrees latitude of the equator because the coriolis effect isn't strong enough to generate the required circular rotation.

Hurricanes form there because the correct ingredients can be found to make the hurricane. One ingredient is that the water in the ocean needs to be at least 27 degrees celsius on the top 61 meters of water. Hurricanes form in tropical waters when evaporating water is sucked up into storms. As the vapor rises, it condenses, releasing energy that fuels the storm. Hurricanes form over water, and the water must be warm. During the hurricane season the water temperature along the east coast is at least eighty degrees Fahrenheit.

Do you think better weather forecasting requires a degree in meteorology? Maybe a degree in statistical analysis would be more helpful. Consider this following new way to forecast the weather with more accuracy and less knowledge.

Friday, February 2, 2007 - Canon City, Colorado. I brought in my Canon City Daily Record from the porch when it arrived, at about 3 in the afternoon. I opened the newspaper to the page with the weather forecast, wondering how cold it would be the following day.

The paper forecast a high temperature was 13 degrees Fahrenheit. I knew this was way too low. Forecasts on television and on the internet said that we would reach 23 or 27 degrees the following day. I knew they were also too low, and I told my wife it would be in the 30s at least. The actual high temperature the next day was 53 degrees Fahrenheit.

No, that's not a typo. The various weather forecasting "experts" were off by as much as 40 degrees - and that was for a simple 24-hour forecast. How could they be so far off? And how could I be better than them at forecasting the weather?

I can't answer the first question. The weather here is more unpredictable than in most places. Also, perhaps the meteorologists follow there computer models too slavishly, even when their experience and intuition tell them to adjust the forecast.

However, I can answer the second question. My guess was closer because the forecasters were so consistent in the way they made their errors. Around this time, I remember counting something like 15 out of 20 days when all the various weather forecasts predicted a high temperature that was 5 degrees or more too low. All I needed to do was take the highest temperature forecast and add five degrees.

A New Weather Forecasting Model

Consistency in their errors was the key to my success. They weren't forecasting too high one day and too low the next. They were wrong in the same ways over and over.

Are the errors as consistent in other parts of the country? That could be determined by looking at the statistics. Check the forecast highs and lows for the last 365 days, and check the actual temperatures for those days. See what the predicted probabilities of rain or snow were, and what actually happened.

Suppose that of the last 24 times a forecaster predicted a 50% chance of rain, it actually rained 18 times. He may have the best data, but he may be too conservative in how he uses it. Suppose this was not a fluke - which can be determined by doing more statistical analysis. You could know nothing about weather forecasting and provide a more accurate forecast simply by saying "A 75% chance of rain tomorrow" every time he said there was a 50% chance, right?

That's the basis for this new forecasting model. First gather the statistical information on the forecasts of several weather forecasting services or meteorologists. Compare this to the actual weather that happened, and look for any consistencies in the inaccuracies. Then you create a computer program. As you enter each of these forecasts into it, they are adjusted for known tendencies. The result is a more accurate forecast.

If Forecaster A has managed over the last year to forecast a high that averages 4 degrees over the actual high, the computer adjusts for that. More sophisticated analysis might show that Forecaster B is consistently predicting a higher probability of rain than there is in the fall, but a lower probability of rain than there actually is in the spring. The computer can take this into account. Finally, it may work best if the adjusted forecasts of three or more sources are then averaged.

There really is no need to know anything at all about weather forecasting. This is based on the idea that even when experts have all the best knowledge and data, they sometimes apply it incorrectly, and do so in consistent ways. Don't be surprised if some television stations get rid of their meteorologists and take advantage of this new weather forecasting idea.

"Now your electronic weather forecast, from our Statistical Analysis Weather Machine."

About the author:

Copyright Steve Gillman

Tropical Storm Kyle NHC 5 AM Discussion

AIR FORCE RECON REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH AND STRUCTURE OF KYLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THERE WERE TWO REPORTS OF 70 KT AT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH WOULD TYPICALLY CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 55 KT SURFACE WINDS. SFMR WINDS IN THAT SAME AREA ALSO ONLY SUPPORT ABOUT 55 KT. HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OCCURRED ABOUT 30 NMI NORTHWEST OF THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY HAVE BEEN MISSED ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLIGHT LEG. THE HIGHER LATITUDE AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE EAST ALSO SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE STANDARD PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP FOR A 996 MB PRESSURE WOULD SUPPORT. KYLE HAS MADE A SHORT TERM JOG TO THE NORTHWEST...OR 330 DEGREES AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...A 9-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION YIELDS 345/14... AND THAT IS WHAT WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. KYLE REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEP-LAYER BUT WEAKENING LOW TO THE WEST OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE COMBINED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE KYLE NORTHWARD TODAY AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THE VARIOUS SURFACE TRACKS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DUE TO THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BEING STRONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON THE EXACT TIME AND LOCATION OF RECURVATURE OF KYLE TO THE NORTHEAST. IF THE EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS DELAYED BY JUST 6 HOURS ...THEN KYLE WOULD PASS CLOSER TO CAPE COD THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF KYLE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN CONTRAST TO WHAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING...THEN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED WESTWARD AND CLOSER TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION LATER THIS MORNING. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED...EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. ONE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF KYLE LATE YESTERDAY ALLOWED THE CYCLONE TO BRIEFLY INTENSIFY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 30N LATITUDE IS LIFTING NORTHWARD AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF KYLE AND RELIEVES PRESSURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE SHOULD RESUME AND KYLE IS EXPECTED BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LATER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS A BLEND OF THE ICON...SHIPS...AND THE GFDL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 30.5N 69.4W 60 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 33.0N 69.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 36.8N 69.4W 70 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 41.0N 68.4W 70 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 44.9N 66.7W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 30/0600Z 50.5N 64.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND 96HR VT 01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

Tropical Storm Kyle NHC Discussion 5 PM

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFTINDICATE THAT KYLE IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...WITHTHE FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTERS AT 850 MB AND 700 MB DISPLACED TO THENORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER BY 15-20 KT OF WESTERLYVERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1003MB...AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME ELONGATED NORTH-NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE AIR FORCEAIRCRAFT REPORTED 56 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB...WITH SFMRWINDS OF 45-48 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS...THEINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.AFTER A NUDGE TO THE LEFT THIS MORNING...KYLE HAS MADE A NUDGE TOTHE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12 HR MOTION AND ADVISORY MOTION IS345/11...BUT THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS ALMOST DUE NORTH. KYLEREMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRALATLANTIC...AND SOON SHOULD PASS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEP-LAYERLOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERNSHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD FORTHE NEXT 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS KYLE TOTURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE MAINBRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THE NORTHERN END OF THE ATLANTICRIDGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TOWARDWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH MOST OF GUIDANCENOW SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THAN PREVIOUSLY. BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE AND THE INITIAL POSITION/MOTION...THE NEWFORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUSTRACK. HOWEVER...IT LIES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODELCONSENSUS.IF ANYTHING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX THAN ITWAS 6 HOURS AGO. THE CURRENT SHEAR MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THENEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW KYLE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AFTER THAT...KYLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG...BUTDIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW....WITH THE RESULTINGSHEAR TRYING TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND THE DIVERGENCE TRYING TOSTRENGTHEN IT. A NEW COMPLICATION IS A COLD AIR MASS APPROACHINGKYLE FROM THE EAST...WHICH IF IT REACHES THE CYCLONE COULD CAUSEWEAKENING OR A FASTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DESPITE THENEGATIVE FACTORS...THE SHIPS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS CALL FOR KYLETO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FORTHE CYCLONE TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KT IN 36 HR. AFTERTHAT TIME...KYLE WILL MOVE OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ANDBEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSEWEAKENING. KYLE SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AFTERLANDFALL AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN AFRONTAL SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA.INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULDCLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FORPORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 26/2100Z 27.6N 68.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 29.5N 69.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 32.6N 69.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 28/0600Z 36.5N 69.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 28/1800Z 40.3N 67.8W 65 KT 72HR VT 29/1800Z 47.5N 64.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 30/1800Z 52.0N 62.0W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL120HR VT 01/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

Tropical Storm Kyle NHC Discussion 11AM EST

KYLE IS SHOWING A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THISMORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OFTHE CONVECTION BY 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...WHILERECENT QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATES BELIEVABLE WINDS OF 45 KT. BASED ONTHIS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIALINTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT WOBBLY 340/11...SLIGHTLY TO THELEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLECHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. KYLEIS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRALATLANTIC...AND SOON SHOULD PASS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEP-LAYERLOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERNSHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR. AFTERTHAT...KYLE MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS ITAPPROACHES THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THE NORTHERN ENDOF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAST THENORTHERN END OF THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN AND HOW SOON KYLE MAY ACQUIREAN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...AS SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWA STRONGER RIDGE AND A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OPERATIONALMODEL. HOWEVER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THEPREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE OVERNORTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. THENEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THEPREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. THE CURRENT SHEAR MAYDECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW KYLETO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AFTER THAT...KYLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTERSTRONG...BUT DIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW....WITH THERESULTING SHEAR TRYING TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND THE DIVERGENCETRYING TO STRENGTHEN IT. WHICH OF THESE INFLUENCES WILL BE THESTRONGEST IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLSFOR KYLE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE FIRST 48 HR IN AGREEMENTWITH MOST GUIDANCE...BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HR. AFTER 48HR...KYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM INTO VERYCOLD WATER. WHILE THIS AND THE EXPECTED ONSET OF EXTRATROPICALTRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE KYLE TO WEAKEN...IT MAY STILL BE OFHURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN THE CENTER REACHES NEW ENGLAND OR THEMARITIMES. AFTER LANDFALL...KYLE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOMEEXTRATROPICAL...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM.INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULDCLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 26/1500Z 26.4N 68.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 28.6N 69.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 31.7N 69.9W 60 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 35.5N 69.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 39.5N 68.7W 70 KT 72HR VT 29/1200Z 46.5N 66.0W 50 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 30/1200Z 52.0N 62.0W 40 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL120HR VT 01/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM$$FORECASTER BEVEN

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