Tropical Storm Kyle NHC Discussion 5 PM

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFTINDICATE THAT KYLE IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...WITHTHE FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTERS AT 850 MB AND 700 MB DISPLACED TO THENORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER BY 15-20 KT OF WESTERLYVERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1003MB...AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME ELONGATED NORTH-NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE AIR FORCEAIRCRAFT REPORTED 56 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB...WITH SFMRWINDS OF 45-48 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS...THEINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.AFTER A NUDGE TO THE LEFT THIS MORNING...KYLE HAS MADE A NUDGE TOTHE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12 HR MOTION AND ADVISORY MOTION IS345/11...BUT THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS ALMOST DUE NORTH. KYLEREMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRALATLANTIC...AND SOON SHOULD PASS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEP-LAYERLOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERNSHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD FORTHE NEXT 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS KYLE TOTURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE MAINBRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THE NORTHERN END OF THE ATLANTICRIDGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TOWARDWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH MOST OF GUIDANCENOW SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THAN PREVIOUSLY. BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE AND THE INITIAL POSITION/MOTION...THE NEWFORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUSTRACK. HOWEVER...IT LIES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODELCONSENSUS.IF ANYTHING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX THAN ITWAS 6 HOURS AGO. THE CURRENT SHEAR MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THENEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW KYLE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AFTER THAT...KYLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG...BUTDIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW....WITH THE RESULTINGSHEAR TRYING TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND THE DIVERGENCE TRYING TOSTRENGTHEN IT. A NEW COMPLICATION IS A COLD AIR MASS APPROACHINGKYLE FROM THE EAST...WHICH IF IT REACHES THE CYCLONE COULD CAUSEWEAKENING OR A FASTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DESPITE THENEGATIVE FACTORS...THE SHIPS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS CALL FOR KYLETO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FORTHE CYCLONE TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KT IN 36 HR. AFTERTHAT TIME...KYLE WILL MOVE OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ANDBEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSEWEAKENING. KYLE SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AFTERLANDFALL AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN AFRONTAL SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA.INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULDCLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FORPORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 26/2100Z 27.6N 68.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 29.5N 69.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 32.6N 69.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 28/0600Z 36.5N 69.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 28/1800Z 40.3N 67.8W 65 KT 72HR VT 29/1800Z 47.5N 64.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 30/1800Z 52.0N 62.0W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL120HR VT 01/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM