Tropical Storm Kyle NHC Discussion 11AM EST

KYLE IS SHOWING A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THISMORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OFTHE CONVECTION BY 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...WHILERECENT QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATES BELIEVABLE WINDS OF 45 KT. BASED ONTHIS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIALINTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT WOBBLY 340/11...SLIGHTLY TO THELEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLECHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. KYLEIS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRALATLANTIC...AND SOON SHOULD PASS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEP-LAYERLOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERNSHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR. AFTERTHAT...KYLE MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS ITAPPROACHES THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THE NORTHERN ENDOF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAST THENORTHERN END OF THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN AND HOW SOON KYLE MAY ACQUIREAN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...AS SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWA STRONGER RIDGE AND A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OPERATIONALMODEL. HOWEVER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THEPREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE OVERNORTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. THENEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THEPREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. THE CURRENT SHEAR MAYDECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW KYLETO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AFTER THAT...KYLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTERSTRONG...BUT DIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW....WITH THERESULTING SHEAR TRYING TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND THE DIVERGENCETRYING TO STRENGTHEN IT. WHICH OF THESE INFLUENCES WILL BE THESTRONGEST IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLSFOR KYLE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE FIRST 48 HR IN AGREEMENTWITH MOST GUIDANCE...BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HR. AFTER 48HR...KYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM INTO VERYCOLD WATER. WHILE THIS AND THE EXPECTED ONSET OF EXTRATROPICALTRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE KYLE TO WEAKEN...IT MAY STILL BE OFHURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN THE CENTER REACHES NEW ENGLAND OR THEMARITIMES. AFTER LANDFALL...KYLE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOMEEXTRATROPICAL...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM.INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULDCLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 26/1500Z 26.4N 68.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 28.6N 69.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 31.7N 69.9W 60 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 35.5N 69.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 39.5N 68.7W 70 KT 72HR VT 29/1200Z 46.5N 66.0W 50 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 30/1200Z 52.0N 62.0W 40 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL120HR VT 01/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM$$FORECASTER BEVEN